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03-18-12, 10:16 PM | #21 | ||
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Ideally we would be using whatever mix of energy sources has the lowest total cost, but because fossil fuels have established themselves, both in terms of sunk costs in infrastructure and sunk costs in terms of lobbying, we are overpaying for their externalized costs even if their up front costs are lower than AE sources. |
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The Following User Says Thank You to roflwaffle For This Useful Post: | NeilBlanchard (03-19-12) |
03-19-12, 01:04 AM | #22 | |
Supreme EcoRenovator
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Although I put a couple of links to the Hirsch Report inside a response to Xringer, it was actually meant for you to read, as I know that Xringer won't read anything difficult. I really think that you need to update the base of information you are using. Your thinking was dated, even in 1950's... things are much more serious now. The Hirsch Report is a good place to start. Your tax dollars paid for the report, so you might as well read it. -AC_Hacker
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03-19-12, 01:17 AM | #23 | |
Helper EcoRenovator
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Energy prices are astronomical. Typically people spend $3000 per year on electric and gas, and our climate is typically -5C for very short periods, up to 28C in summer. Lifestyles have changed a lot. We now get pizza from the local store for $5, instead of ordering it in for $40. Get 3 dvds a month from 'lovefilm.com' for $10, instead of 3 visits for 2 people to the cinema at $100. |
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03-19-12, 01:59 AM | #24 | |
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My rant is getting OT, sorry.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Piwoslaw For This Useful Post: | NeilBlanchard (03-19-12) |
03-19-12, 02:23 AM | #25 | ||||
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Your argument doesn't work though because the end point is simply that some alternative to fossil fuels must be in place at the time that fossil fuels become too expensive to use. This conclusion tells us nothing about the need to roll out antiquated and low energy density alternative energy systems as the replacements for fossil fuels. That's just religion talking. It's working from the unquestioned axiom that AE is the road to salvation. Quote:
The problem here, at the core, is that this religious movement is simply a manifestation of groups wanting to exert control over others. I don't see you writing that you and those who think like you should voluntarily deprive yourself of energy generation sourced from fossil fuels, instead I see you and your ilk advocating that the choices you favor should be imposed on everyone else and that everyone else should bear the expense of rolling out these subpar technologies so as to satisfy your religious need to have your cravings satisfied. This is like religious conservatives who advocate that the government needs to "do something" to enforce chastity while many engage in premarital sex or extramarital sex in their own lives. If someone believes in chastity, then they should live their lives according to that creed, similarly, if someone believes that energy from fossil fuels should be avoided then they should conduct their lives so that they consume no energy produced by fossil fuels. The fact that people don't often live their lives according to the standards that they advocate be imposed on everyone tells me that they're more interested in the process of controlling other people's lives than they are in living true to what they preach. Environmentalism is mostly a means of achieving the leftist desire to control people. This observation isn't uniquely derived by me, many have noticed this and hence the terms "watermelons" was coined - Green on the outside, Red on the inside. All of the "solutions" coincidently interject government control deeper into societies and all seem to redistribute wealth in one fashion or another. Green is just the tool to achieve the aims of the Reds. Quote:
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If you wish to make a case that the lobbying in question has nothing to do with legislation and is instead focused on foreign policy and our heavy involvement in the Middle East hellhole, then you have a very strong case. Those costs should be quantified and attached to the price of oil or alternatively we should completely reject any military involvement in the region and thus save hundreds of billions of dollars and allow the price of oil to reflect the cost of geopolitical uncertainty. Do you see the difference in approach between you and me? You want to impose your vision on everyone but I'm willing to let the chips fall where they may by stripping geopolitical stability, bought with US taxpayer's dollars (and capital borrowed in the name of US taxpayers) from Middle Eastern oil and then allowing people (mighty big of me to allow people to make their own choices, huh?) to react to the new market conditions in the energy sector. |
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03-19-12, 02:35 AM | #26 | |
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What Hirsch is doing is replaying the famous Simon-Ehrlich bet from the 80s. Julian L. Simon and Paul Ehrlich entered in a famous wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. Simon had Ehrlich choose five commodity metals. Copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten were chosen and Simon bet that their prices would decrease, while Ehrlich bet they would increase.[note 1] Ehrlich ultimately lost the bet, and all five commodities that were selected as the basis for the wager continued to trend downward during the wager period.Simon allowed Ehrlich to choose the commodities, he gave him free license to stack the bet in his favor and yet Simon prevailed. Hirsch suffers from the same limitations on mental modeling that afflicted Ehrlich. Garbage-In ---> Garbage-Out reports do not carry any authoritative voice, they're just opinions. I can walk up to any drunk hobo on the street and ask him his opinion on subjects and they'd carry just as much authority as Hirsch's opinion on the future. Now if Hirsch has accurately predicted a peak oil scenario for 2015, then his report gains some credibility and I'll give it attention because it has satisfied a key measure of the scientific method, it made a prediction based on a hypothesis and the prediction was tested and validated. |
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03-19-12, 02:40 AM | #27 |
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Tar sand bitumen is proof we have passed peak oil. Case closed.
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The Following User Says Thank You to NeilBlanchard For This Useful Post: | Piwoslaw (03-19-12) |
03-19-12, 02:51 AM | #28 | |||
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The best strategy is to make energy efficiency more cost effective than energy wastefulness. This dynamic is self-regulating in an environment of rising energy costs. People will act in their own self interest, rather than acting to advance an ideological position regarding the need to conserve energy simply for the sake of conserving energy. Quote:
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03-19-12, 08:32 AM | #29 |
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I just looked at this mornings emails from EcoRenovator, and we are wasting out time on half-baked postings about whether energy alternatives and energy reductions are required when we know full well that they are, and essentially no postings on how we are developing our own alternatives and reductions.
The zombies are draining our creative energies. Ignore zombies. -AC
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The Following User Says Thank You to AC_Hacker For This Useful Post: | roflwaffle (03-19-12) |
03-19-12, 05:31 PM | #30 |
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Is that the same things as Savonarola screaming "Burn the heretics"?
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