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Old 10-05-10, 12:33 PM   #21
AC_Hacker
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Default German Military Report Concerning Peak Oil and it's Effects...

A think tank from within the German Military created a report about Peak Oil and it's possible effects.


The report was leaked to the German newspaper, Der Spiegel. An English language summary of the leaked report is available here.

However, the original German article had a link to download the German language report here.

A quote from the Der Spiegel english article:

Quote:
It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.
Serious stuff...

Regards,

AC_Hacker

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Old 10-05-10, 12:54 PM   #22
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Default Peak oil?

I don't think that topic comes up much in Washington DC.

It seems like our government is more concerned with turning America
a into copy of Chicago (or Cuba), and could care less about how we heat
our homes in the coming decades.
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Old 10-05-10, 08:47 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Xringer View Post
I don't think that topic comes up much in Washington DC.
Xringer,

There is a difference between what Washington discusses with the people of Washington and what Washington discusses with the people of America.

Case in point:

There was a report commissioned by the Bush administration, called the Hirsch report.

Hirsch report download link here.

The report discussed Peak Oil, and what kind of preparation lead-time would be required to avoid disaster. He figured that it would take at least 20 years to build out the infrastructure needed to continue life as we know it.

He described what would happen if we started
  • 20 years before the peak
  • 10 years before the peak
  • 0 years before the peak

To put this in perspective, many estimates are now putting the onset of problems in as little as two to three years. There are even people (myself included) that think that the problems have already begun, with the 2008 economic downturn, and the subsequent ripple-effects being caused by a tightening oil supply.

The Bush administration told Robert Hirsch to stop his research, to stop publishing, to not discuss his findings. Hirsch referred to it as a "A conspiracy to keep it quiet".

The Bush Administration, in short, attempted to smother the report, but one copy made it to a web site constructed by a High school class that was studying energy. Then the report went global.

So, Washington does know about this, about when it will hit, and what it's effects are likely to be.

But they're not talking to us about what they know is going to happen... not a word out of Washington since Jimmie Carter.



Le Monde, the French international paper did a very interesting three part series on this issue, even going so far as to interview Robert Hirsch himself.

Regards,

-AC_Hacker
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Old 10-07-10, 10:44 AM   #24
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Default

I'm not impressed with the Hirsch report. Their model uses a triangular curve of oil production suddenly peaking and rapidly declining. Hubbard used a bell-shaped curve, which is the correct shape if the price of oil is constant. In Hubbard's scenario, supply shortfalls would serve as a wake-up call before production can level off, peak, and begin its decline.

The market responds well to a shortfall, assuming it has enough time to respond. The price of oil rises, and the mitigation strategies mentioned by Hirsch (conservation, tar sands, deep sea drilling, and others) are put in to place. As production of unconventional oil ramps up, the peak will be postponed, and the decline will be more gradual.

Hopefully, the decline in production (at ever-higher prices) will be gradual enough for the US to catch up to the low-CO2 economies that some more civilized nations already have in place.
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Old 10-08-10, 01:29 AM   #25
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I'm not impressed with the Hirsch report. Their model uses a triangular curve of oil production suddenly peaking and rapidly declining. Hubbard used a bell-shaped curve, which is the correct shape if the price of oil is constant. In Hubbard's scenario, supply shortfalls would serve as a wake-up call before production can level off, peak, and begin its decline.
The triangles were just a simplifying assumption, they have no bearing on the real point of the report. The real point is that energy infrastructure takes a very long time to bring on-line, and that time is measured not in years, but in decades. And it follows that if we want to avoid catastrophic dislocations, we need to start working early and in earnest to build out the new infrastructures.

We have already wasted so much time that the dislocations are going to be unavoidable.

Yes, the market is good at responding to shortages, but it is not capable of responding to shortages twenty years in advance. This is what we needed, a twenty year head start (minimum).

However RobertSmalls, the real reason I did the last post is to shine some light on the fact that our political leaders know what is about to happen, and they are not telling us about it, nor are they taking the action that is needed.

Hirsch was a genuine insider, he was hired by the Bush administration and in the Le Monde interviews, he very clearly states that he was told to shut up.

This is something you don't come across very often.

So, are you preparing your infrastructure?

Regards,

-AC_Hacker

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Old 10-08-10, 07:40 AM   #26
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Quote:
So, are you preparing your infrastructure?
I happen to be working on my personal infrastructure. I'm building an off grid garage / workshop {barn} that will be reasonably comfortable to live in IF their is a grid failure that lasts for more than a day or two.

I am reducing my energy footprint at home and plan to make further reductions.

After the barn is done, I plan to convert a small car to battery electric.

We are growing fruit trees and berry producing bushes and make a garden. A rainwater catchment system is in the plans, too.

If I could figure out how to squeeze a few more hours out of the day, I'd try more.

The best part is that even if none of the doom and gloom stuff happens in my lifetime, all that I'm doing has a positive effect on my lifestyle.
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Old 10-08-10, 09:06 AM   #27
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Default 'a grid failure that lasts'

Humm, if a grid failure that lasts more than few days, it could last
over a month. Just ask the NH ice storm survivors.


December 2008 New England and Upstate New York ice storm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Cold weather and no power brings out the worse in people.
It seemed all that some of them had to do is follow the sound
of the small ICE, and they could find themselfs a nice generator to steal..

Of course, that was just a local thing. People could just drive a few miles
and be in areas that still had power.

In case of a very large scale black out, that lasted.. What would be the side-effects?

I'm wondering what the local socialist folks would do, after a few weeks
of blackout, when they saw a house with big PV array on it's roof??
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Old 10-08-10, 10:47 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xringer View Post
I'm wondering what the local socialist folks would do, after a few weeks of blackout, when they saw a house with big PV array on it's roof??
Have you suffered personal trauma due to an encounter with a socialist?

Have you ever personally met a socialist?

Do you even know what a socialist is?

Your thinking seems to be a bit muddled here...

Have you decided that you will reject the Social Security check when it arrives at your door?

Have you decided to work to put an end the system of public libraries?

Have you decided that you will no longer drive on public roads?

No, I think if someone comes to steal your PV array, it will be someone like you, and they'll also have a gun.
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Old 10-08-10, 11:17 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by gasstingy View Post
The best part is that even if none of the doom and gloom stuff happens in my lifetime, all that I'm doing has a positive effect on my lifestyle.
Looks like you're really going all out!

Sounds like you are fortunate to have a rural location.

I'm doing what I can on my little city lot:
  • Planting food-bearing trees, bushes and vines.
  • Buttoning up my house to prevent air infiltration.
  • Progressing on with major insulation upgrades.
  • Installing the most energy-efficient lighting I can find.
  • Driving a 60 mpg car.
  • I installed 720 feet of HD Poly pipe in the backyard for my Ground Source Heat Pump project. I still need to finish making the heat pump and set up the water pumps.
  • Remodeling my house to minimize energy, maximize space use without expanding the shell of the house.
I'm looking into an electric vehicle also. But for me, a hybrid electric bike holds the most promise.

This guy's work has really inspired me:



He seems to be right on the cutting edge with all of the technical particulars, crystalyte 406 hub-motor, 72 volts, LiFePO4 batteries, etc.

Here is another outfit that has housed the same technology in a weather-proof shell:

AeroRider

.

I'm not ready yet to tackle a composite shell, but the hybrid bike looks very do-able. A vehicle with a 20 to 30 mile range would be very useful and keep me out of my car,

I especially understand what you said about, "...all that I'm doing has a positive effect on my lifestyle."

I feel the same way myself.

Best Regards,

-AC_Hacker

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Old 10-08-10, 11:51 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AC_Hacker View Post
Have you suffered personal trauma due to an encounter with a socialist?

Have you ever personally met a socialist?

Do you even know what a socialist is?

Your thinking seems to be a bit muddled here...

Have you decided that you will reject the Social Security check when it arrives at your door?

Have you decided to work to put an end the system of public libraries?

Have you decided that you will no longer drive on public roads?

No, I think if someone comes to steal your PV array, it will be someone like you, and they'll also have a gun.

You're confusing me with Margaret Thatcher..
"The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." (paraphrased).

Back when I lived in Somerville MA, using the name 'socialist' to describe
the kids (and or vandals) who would 'borrow' their neighbors cars to learn
to drive or, just to crash/burn them etc, was a joke..
Today, I guess they call it redistribution of the cars!

When I see people who think that stealing or destroying public property,
(park play ground equipment, city buses etc), is okay,
I know that many of those people look at private property the same way.. What's yours is mine etc..

In somerville, if you left something valuable in your car, that meant you didn't want it anymore..
Or, if you didn't install an alarm system, it meant; Take my car please! LOL!!

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