For you Texans, a video of my snow - Page 2

RobertSmalls · 02-09-11, 09:21 PM

Look to ocean surface currents for explanations of what is going on:

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Hence floods in Australia and Pakistan, droughts in Amazonia and China, and Boltophston looks like Buffalo. Here, the lake froze nice and early, so we haven't seen too much lake effect snow, but the temperatures are lower than usual as a result.

As to the ice age / insolation suggestion, don't just make wild postulations when data is available:

Xringer · 02-09-11, 10:39 PM

History books are available too. The low sunspot counts and extra cold weather seem to
have occurred at the same time. Some people don't think it's a coincident.

The missing sunspots: Is this the big chill? - Science, News - The Independent

"Overall, during an 11-year solar cycle the Sun’s output changes by only 0.1 per cent, an amount considered by many to be too small a variation to change much on earth. But there is another way of looking it. While this 0.1 per cent variation is small as a percentage, in terms of absolute energy levels it is enormous, amounting to a highly significant 1.3 Watts of energy per square metre at the Earth"

1.3W, times how many sq meters?
I wonder how many BTUhs of heat has been lost since the sun went quite?

strider3700 · 02-09-11, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xringer

1.3W, times how many sq meters?
I wonder how many BTUhs of heat has been lost since the sun went quite?

well the earth has roughly 510,072,000 sqkm of surface so 5.10072 × 10^14 sq meters

divided in half since only half is lit at any given time and it's 2.55036 × 10^14

times that by 1.3 and you get
3.315468 × 10^14 watts lost or 331,546,800,000 KW not hitting the earth.

How to get from that to BTU's I don't know

Xringer · 02-09-11, 11:50 PM

Humm, if that was in kWh, then that's about 1.131285e+015 BTU hours..

So, if are we talking we are talking 1 hour, what are we talking about per year?
The sun has been in quite mode for a few years now.. Since 2006??

Looks kinda odd for an 11 year cycle.. Looks like the 2012 peak is gonna be an epic fail..

Another climate wild card: solar cycle 24, perhaps causing food riots during the next decade « Fabius Maximus

Referring to the NASA forecast:
"If this forecast is correct, cycle 24 would be would be the slowest since cycles 5 and 6 (the Dalton minimum) in 1800-1820. This was the London of Charles Dickens’s childhood — a London draped with snow, when people skated on the Thames River."

Xringer · 02-10-11, 12:07 AM

New plot posted:
Update about the weather on the Sun. Perhaps coming soon to Earth, visible in your local supermarket. « Fabius Maximus

The old and the new, side by side..

Ryland · 02-10-11, 08:20 AM

We have a total of almost two feet of snow on the ground right now and it hasn't snowed in the past week or two so the city is now going around with a front end loader mounted snow blower and clearing the snow banks that line the streets, I suspect that they are doing this because the storm water culverts are all frozen up solid with ice and when the snow melts it's going to cause massive flooding in areas that never see flooding.
This is why if you have a damp basement I think it's a good idea to pick up a sump pump now before they sell out and a UPS back up like is designed to power a computer, they work well for fridges and sump pumps.
Personally I'm going to make pop corn and watch things fall apart.

gasstingy · 02-10-11, 08:22 AM

Just as a follow-up on my last post. Last night it dropped about 2" of snow in Arab, AL. The streets in town were still mostly clear but about 10 miles north of town it got worse. Our entire county either delayed schools by a minimum of 2 hours or closed them completely. Huntsville, AL has had {according to the news} more than 60 accidents by 8:00 am. They are 35 miles north of Arab.

Xringer · 02-10-11, 09:48 AM

I've got my back-up system for my pumps all wired up. The bank is charged and ready.

Be careful popping corn in the microwave. My wife over-cooked some,
took the smoking bag into the den, where it set off the smoke alarm,
which wirelessly linked to the other alarms.. Sounded like a dam nuke plant being Scramed.

Xringer · 02-10-11, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gasstingy

Just as a follow-up on my last post. Last night it dropped about 2" of snow in Arab, AL. The streets in town were still mostly clear but about 10 miles north of town it got worse. Our entire county either delayed schools by a minimum of 2 hours or closed them completely. Huntsville, AL has had {according to the news} more than 60 accidents by 8:00 am. They are 35 miles north of Arab.

We got two inches the other night. I let my wife handle the clean up.

The only bad part was where the city plows piled up the slush at the sidewalk
and driveway openings. Where it froze solid..

RobertSmalls · 02-10-11, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strider3700

well the earth has roughly 510,072,000 sqkm of surface so 5.10072 × 10^14 sq meters

divided in half since only half is lit at any given time and it's 2.55036 × 10^14

times that by 1.3 and you get
3.315468 × 10^14 watts lost or 331,546,800,000 KW not hitting the earth.

How to get from that to BTU's I don't know

Not exactly. It's 1.3kW per square meter of PROJECTED area. If the sun is lower in the sky, multiply by sin(theta). To do so without trig, just take the surface area of the earth as pi*r(earth)²: 1.3kW/m²*pi*(3956.6 mi)² - Wolfram|Alpha

166 petawatts. Wolfram will turn it into BTU/hr, or troy oz * rod * parsec per cubic fortnight.

You could overlay ANY two solar cycles over the 1777-1821 plot and I'd draw the same conclusion:

02-09-11, 09:21 PM	#11
RobertSmalls Journeyman EcoRenovator Join Date: May 2009 Location: Buffalo, NY Posts: 344 Thanks: 3 Thanked 17 Times in 15 Posts	Look to ocean surface currents for explanations of what is going on: Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Hence floods in Australia and Pakistan, droughts in Amazonia and China, and Boltophston looks like Buffalo. Here, the lake froze nice and early, so we haven't seen too much lake effect snow, but the temperatures are lower than usual as a result. As to the ice age / insolation suggestion, don't just make wild postulations when data is available:

02-09-11, 10:39 PM	#12
Xringer Lex Parsimoniae Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Woburn, MA Posts: 4,918 Thanks: 114 Thanked 250 Times in 230 Posts	History books are available too. The low sunspot counts and extra cold weather seem to have occurred at the same time. Some people don't think it's a coincident. The missing sunspots: Is this the big chill? - Science, News - The Independent "Overall, during an 11-year solar cycle the Sun’s output changes by only 0.1 per cent, an amount considered by many to be too small a variation to change much on earth. But there is another way of looking it. While this 0.1 per cent variation is small as a percentage, in terms of absolute energy levels it is enormous, amounting to a highly significant 1.3 Watts of energy per square metre at the Earth" 1.3W, times how many sq meters? I wonder how many BTUhs of heat has been lost since the sun went quite?

02-09-11, 11:50 PM	#14
Xringer Lex Parsimoniae Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Woburn, MA Posts: 4,918 Thanks: 114 Thanked 250 Times in 230 Posts	Humm, if that was in kWh, then that's about 1.131285e+015 BTU hours.. So, if are we talking we are talking 1 hour, what are we talking about per year? The sun has been in quite mode for a few years now.. Since 2006?? Looks kinda odd for an 11 year cycle.. Looks like the 2012 peak is gonna be an epic fail.. Another climate wild card: solar cycle 24, perhaps causing food riots during the next decade « Fabius Maximus Referring to the NASA forecast: "If this forecast is correct, cycle 24 would be would be the slowest since cycles 5 and 6 (the Dalton minimum) in 1800-1820. This was the London of Charles Dickens’s childhood — a London draped with snow, when people skated on the Thames River."

02-10-11, 12:07 AM	#15
Xringer Lex Parsimoniae Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Woburn, MA Posts: 4,918 Thanks: 114 Thanked 250 Times in 230 Posts	New plot posted: Update about the weather on the Sun. Perhaps coming soon to Earth, visible in your local supermarket. « Fabius Maximus The old and the new, side by side..

02-10-11, 08:20 AM	#16
Ryland Master EcoRenovator Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Western Wisconsin. Posts: 913 Thanks: 127 Thanked 82 Times in 71 Posts	We have a total of almost two feet of snow on the ground right now and it hasn't snowed in the past week or two so the city is now going around with a front end loader mounted snow blower and clearing the snow banks that line the streets, I suspect that they are doing this because the storm water culverts are all frozen up solid with ice and when the snow melts it's going to cause massive flooding in areas that never see flooding. This is why if you have a damp basement I think it's a good idea to pick up a sump pump now before they sell out and a UPS back up like is designed to power a computer, they work well for fridges and sump pumps. Personally I'm going to make pop corn and watch things fall apart.

02-10-11, 08:22 AM	#17
gasstingy Journeyman EcoRenovator Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Arab, AL Posts: 491 Thanks: 109 Thanked 49 Times in 43 Posts	Just as a follow-up on my last post. Last night it dropped about 2" of snow in Arab, AL. The streets in town were still mostly clear but about 10 miles north of town it got worse. Our entire county either delayed schools by a minimum of 2 hours or closed them completely. Huntsville, AL has had {according to the news} more than 60 accidents by 8:00 am. They are 35 miles north of Arab.

02-10-11, 09:48 AM	#18
Xringer Lex Parsimoniae Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Woburn, MA Posts: 4,918 Thanks: 114 Thanked 250 Times in 230 Posts	I've got my back-up system for my pumps all wired up. The bank is charged and ready. Be careful popping corn in the microwave. My wife over-cooked some, took the smoking bag into the den, where it set off the smoke alarm, which wirelessly linked to the other alarms.. Sounded like a dam nuke plant being Scramed.