Is Freedom from Foreign Oil a Worthy Goal?

[Xringer]

That bike looks sweet, but "However, this bike only cost $1,600"..

I can drive my little SUV for 5 to 7 years on 1,600 bucks!!

(Unless gas prices go up)!

[TimJFowler]

Originally Posted by Xringer

That bike looks sweet, but "However, this bike only cost $1,600"..

I can drive my little SUV for 5 to 7 years on 1,600 bucks!!

(Unless gas prices go up)!

I'd bet that little SUV is costing you quite a lot more than $320/year. I'm not trying to give you a hard time, most people have never added up the total ownership costs for their vehicles. For example: average annual car ownerships costs in Massachusetts are $5,290. Your costs may be lower, but I'd be amazed if they are an order of magnitude less.

Try this Costs of Car Ownership Calculator to get a better picture of your total annual costs.

I recently wrote an article and made a presentation on the physical, mental and financial costs of car ownership - Your Car is making you Fat, Angry and Broke (and what you can do about it) | EcoNewMexico.com. If you're interested, the article has a lot more information and links about total car ownership costs.

FWIW,
Tim

P.S. Yes, I still own a car - I leave it parked in the driveway as often as I can.

[AC_Hacker]

Originally Posted by TimJFowler

I'd bet that little SUV is costing you quite a lot more than $320/year.

TimJFowler,

I really like the cost-of-ownership calculator.

But even it does not put a price-tag on the more subtle and serious societal costs, like the environmental damage caused in mining materials and making and finishing cars. And the harm to the environment to build and maintain roadways. There's also the cost of maintaining our military, so as to provide the threat or actuality of death and destruction to those nations unlucky enough to have materials that larger nations (USA, EU, China, etc.) want. And of course, there is the cost of environmental damage from simply running the car.

I think that the world is rapidly approaching the point where economic costs, (when all of the cost are counted, even the hidden ones) alone are not sufficient. The global warming impact of lifestyle choices need to be considered at the same time as economic costs.

The attitudes that served us well in the past have become outmoded. We are no longer hacking our way through a limitless frontier.

I am now hearing that the majority of the worlds scientists are convinced that the human species is doomed because, as a species, we are unable to respond to slowly approaching danger.

I hope that they are proven wrong.

My 33 year old son does not own or drive or even know how to drive a car.

Sometimes I worry that he'll never 'get ahead', whatever that means.

At other times I think that people like him and people like you Tim, are the ones who actually are moving ahead, bravely into the new future.

My Best Regards,

-AC_Hacker

[gasstingy]

Originally Posted by TimJFowler

I recently wrote an article and made a presentation on the physical, mental and financial costs of car ownership - Your Car is making you Fat, Angry and Broke (and what you can do about it) | EcoNewMexico.com. If you're interested, the article has a lot more information and links about total car ownership costs.

Read the article and pretty much agreed with all of it. While still in the Air Force some years ago, living in base housing, my daily commuter was a 27" 10 speed bicycle. I could practically ride up to the door of the building I worked in, lock up my bike on the rack outside and be at work faster than I could drive it. My waist line shrank a little too.

[Xringer]

I was only talking about my fuel cost.. I have no way of knowing who is going win the coming elections,
so I have no clue about the cost of anything really. Driving could be banned next summer for all I know.
We might have to bike to the market with big bag of money, so we can bring home a small bag of food..


But, I have 3,200 miles on my car. I've owned it for about 15.5 months.
3200/15.5 = 206.45 miles per month. Or 2477.4 miles a year.
That's about 103 gallons of gas. Today, it's $2.63 x 103 gallons is $271.48 total gas cost per year.
I'm getting around 24 MPG these days. I visit the gas station about once a month and get 8 or 10 gallons.

Those miles seem a little high.. Maybe I've been driving more because it's a new car.?.
When I first retired, I was only putting 1,200 to 1,500 miles a year on the old Honda CRV.
But, the Ford gets better mileage, so the costs are likely close.
There were a lot of weeks during the summers of 2007 & 2008 when I put more mileage a week on my bicycle, than my CRV.
This summer, I've been spending too much time a Lowes on Home Depot.
I'll cut back on so much driving, now that winter hibernation is coming.
Car insurance and taxes aren't that cheap here, so if things get bad, we can sell my wife's 2003 Corolla and just use the Escape.

[Xringer]

"My 33 year old son does not own or drive or even know how to drive a car."

My 33 year old daughter drives a 2004 X3 2.5i BMW and is a VP at a large bank.

I'm trying to get her to buy a Prius, but she thinks the BMW AWD is better on snow..?.

[AC_Hacker]

Originally Posted by Xringer

My 33 year old daughter drives a 2004 X3 2.5i BMW and is a VP at a large bank.

Since there's pretty much a one-to-one relationship between energy supply and GNP, the bloom could leave the rose.

Hope she's not carrying too much debt.

-AC_Hacker

[Xringer]

Almost all youngsters buying homes have some debt.

I do worry what could happen if the joblessness goes to 20+ percent.
That could avalanche and shut down the whole country.

A LOT of people would be moving into tents. But my little girl can always get her old room back..

[AC_Hacker]

Originally Posted by Xringer

I do worry what could happen if the joblessness goes to 20+ percent. That could avalanche and shut down the whole country.

When the statistics regarding joblessness are not 'baked', in other words when people who have given up on trying to find work, are actually counted, the true current jobless rate is 17%. That's not so far from 20%.

Also, when the inflation rate is not baked, the true current inflation rate is about 12%.

I mentioned the above inflation figure to a local bank loan officer, and she didn't even bat an eye...

I don't think that changing the political party is going to make any difference. I think the issues are much deeper than that.

Check this out:

Money & Growth

To explain why this is so important, we should begin with an understanding of how our monetary system operates. Stay with me here; I’ll keep this quick. The critical fact is this: All money is loaned into existence. All of it. Everywhere. Every last dollar (or yen or euro or…). No matter what color your money is, or what colorful pictures it has on it, in order to belong to the international community, the story is the same. Your banking system must create money and debt at the same time. Whatever we might think of such a system, it is what we have, and understanding its design will help us assess how the future may unfold.

All you really need to know about debt-based money is this: It demands growth.

With constant economic growth, our money system is relatively happy; without growth, it becomes utterly despondent. Think of your own finances. The more your income grows, the easier it is to meet your debt payments and afford the things that give you joy in life. If your income takes a hit, you still need to make your debt payments, and if those are too large, it’s ramen noodles for dinner.

Without constant economic growth, preferably in the range of 3% or better, the debts of countries like the US begin to default, new loans are withheld (limiting future growth), the entire financial system suffers enormously (even threatening to collapse), and gobs of wealth are destroyed. Sound unlikely? It shouldn’t, as this is what most financial professionals call “2009."

Source: chrismartenson.com

-AC_Hacker

[RobertSmalls]

Originally Posted by AC_Hacker

The triangles were just a simplifying assumption, they have no bearing on the real point of the report. The real point is that energy infrastructure takes a very long time to bring on-line, and that time is measured not in years, but in decades. And it follows that if we want to avoid catastrophic dislocations, we need to start working early and in earnest to build out the new infrastructures.

The triangular curves and static oil price assumptions completely change the outcome. In the Hirsch report, the onset of supply shortages is instantaneous and steep. With a bell-shaped curve, though, the shortages start out small and grow slowly before oil production plateaus.

By the way, oil demand in industrialized countries has already peaked. I'm sure higher prices and better energy policy will get it to contract.

Originally Posted by AC_Hacker

Since there's pretty much a one-to-one relationship between energy supply and GNP, the bloom could leave the rose.

No there's not. Energy policy, technology, and attitudes towards conservation influence the energy intensity of GDP. One of my favorite blogs has an entry on that: Energy Use Per GDP Unit by Country -- Seeking Alpha

That chart is also a rough list of relative winners and losers in an energy crisis.



I'm with you on the rest of your points, though. And yes, I am conserving well in advance of any potential supply shortages.