Renewables are Now Cheaper than Nuclear - Next Stop: Coal

SVOboy · 01-06-09, 08:36 AM

For a while now people have been saying that renewables would pass the economic litmus test when they became cheaper than coal, particularly when photovoltaics became cheaper than coal. That hasn’t happened yet, but with renewable energy prices dropping and the costs of safely managing nuclear plants rising, renewable energy has become cheaper, on average, [...]Post from: EcoRenovator.org

Renewables are Now Cheaper than Nuclear - Next Stop: Coal

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Daox · 01-06-09, 09:00 AM

I didn't read the source or the report yet. I just wonder what the general accepted cost per kWh is for wind, biogas, water, etc.

oil pan 4 · 03-28-21, 07:34 PM

I know this is one old post but it's nice to update old posts, you know so you can see how things played out.

This happened after new mexicos out of cycle "blue wave".
https://www.heartland.org/news-opini...energy-mandate

Now PNM is approved for a 7% rate increase. They wanted 14.4% and they are still going to fight for it. And here it is straight from the horses mouth pnm dot com.
https://www.pnm.com/0115-ew-rate-increase-request

Yeah so it looks like renewable aren't always cheaper. Yes hydro electric geothermal always wins. It appears the first 15% to 20% of wind power capacity makes your power cheaper especially when you get a large share of your power from coal and natural gas, but anything more than 25% wind power appears to always be a liability. And generally solar is always more expensive, it's only cheaper like wind with in a certain set of parameters. If your load always peaks during the day, all 12 months a year, then yeah solar is the answer, above 10% it's definitely a liability. In a California I believe they call it the "swan curve" phenomenon. Where demand for the day picks up before the sun is up then all the south facing grid tied arrays roar to life as the sun comes up causing generation demand to dive.

u3b3rg33k · 08-03-21, 01:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

I know this is one old post but it's nice to update old posts, you know so you can see how things played out.

This happened after new mexicos out of cycle "blue wave".
https://www.heartland.org/news-opini...energy-mandate

Now PNM is approved for a 7% rate increase. They wanted 14.4% and they are still going to fight for it. And here it is straight from the horses mouth pnm dot com.
https://www.pnm.com/0115-ew-rate-increase-request

Yeah so it looks like renewable aren't always cheaper. Yes hydro electric geothermal always wins. It appears the first 15% to 20% of wind power capacity makes your power cheaper especially when you get a large share of your power from coal and natural gas, but anything more than 25% wind power appears to always be a liability. And generally solar is always more expensive, it's only cheaper like wind with in a certain set of parameters. If your load always peaks during the day, all 12 months a year, then yeah solar is the answer, above 10% it's definitely a liability. In a California I believe they call it the "swan curve" phenomenon. Where demand for the day picks up before the sun is up then all the south facing grid tied arrays roar to life as the sun comes up causing generation demand to dive.

there's also the option of putting in so much solar that you curtail it most of the time, negating the need for daylight-hour storage. look at it like a solar peaker plant with high capital cost and no fuel cost.

NiHaoMike · 03-31-21, 12:11 AM

Perhaps more investment in automated load management is the answer? The technology to make it happen (for example, Raspberry Pi or ESP32) is dirt cheap. Likewise, thermal storage for HVAC is also dirt cheap. What's missing is the software and standardization to tie it together and that's something the open source community can work on!

jeff5may · 04-10-21, 08:10 PM

Solar thermal and PV is a good investment for us "small guys": individual and single family home dwellers. Nearly as good for retail store rooftops. Return on investment is usually pretty short (under 5 years) if you don't have a battery bank (or huge thermal store). With the modular and microinverter setups out now, you don't have to go "all in" like systems of the past. A modest system can be expanded upon over time without having to reinvent the wheel every phase.

jeff5may · 07-31-21, 09:14 AM

Just took another look at this thread, and I'm sort of surprised there aren't more responses.

The thing that most sours my outlook on wind and solar sources is the natural gas backup that comes with them. Over the last decade or so, lots of countries around the world have been trying to transition away from nuclear power generation and towards wind and PV power. The operating data coming from the shift of source points to the idea that natural gas emissions are a lot cleaner than coal emissions, but the whole"carbon footprint" hasn't changed much.

Piwoslaw · 07-31-21, 10:42 AM

When I read/hear that "PV is now very cheap", I remember something I read recently, related to the boom on PV in Europe and the rest of the world. It stated that among the reasons for the fall in PV prices are not only large-scale production and new technologies, but also companies riding the wave of popularity by producing poor quality panels.
The life expectancy (drop in efficiency) of such panels is half of what the standard was until recently (25-30 years), and this is assuming they survive even moderate hail storms, not to mention short circuits and other failures.

Now, some customers are OK with paying less and getting less, but this moves us even more into the direction of short-lived disposables. This means that in 10-15 years we will see more electronic waste, which will have to be replaced, including all of the energy consuming steps of mining, processing, manufacturing, transporting, etc.

Yes, due to the cheap price of low quality many people can afford PV, who normally would not be able to invest in it. So they will produce energy, somewhat offsetting today's nuclear and fossil pollution, but actually only moving that burden to the next decade.

I dunno, maybe it's still worth it. Or maybe this isn't the right thread.

oil pan 4 · 08-09-21, 04:26 PM

Oh now the coop is trying to up charge me $80 a month just because I have solar.
Yeah green energy is pretty much a scam.

ME_Andy · 08-09-21, 11:49 PM

I think the way this is going to play out in the long term is vehicle-to-grid becomes a common, reliable way to back up renewables. We're already starting to see that with the new F150 providing v2g.

01-06-09, 08:36 AM	#1
SVOboy Administrator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 291 Thanks: 3 Thanked 4 Times in 4 Posts	Renewables are Now Cheaper than Nuclear - Next Stop: Coal For a while now people have been saying that renewables would pass the economic litmus test when they became cheaper than coal, particularly when photovoltaics became cheaper than coal. That hasn’t happened yet, but with renewable energy prices dropping and the costs of safely managing nuclear plants rising, renewable energy has become cheaper, on average, [...]Post from: EcoRenovator.org Renewables are Now Cheaper than Nuclear - Next Stop: Coal More...

01-06-09, 09:00 AM	#2
Daox Administrator Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Germantown, WI Posts: 5,525 Thanks: 1,162 Thanked 374 Times in 305 Posts	I didn't read the source or the report yet. I just wonder what the general accepted cost per kWh is for wind, biogas, water, etc. __________________ Current project - To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. & To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

03-31-21, 12:11 AM	#5
NiHaoMike Supreme EcoRenovator Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 1,154 Thanks: 14 Thanked 257 Times in 241 Posts	Perhaps more investment in automated load management is the answer? The technology to make it happen (for example, Raspberry Pi or ESP32) is dirt cheap. Likewise, thermal storage for HVAC is also dirt cheap. What's missing is the software and standardization to tie it together and that's something the open source community can work on! __________________ To my surprise, shortly after Naomi Wu gave me a bit of fame for making good use of solar power, Allie Moore got really jealous of her...

07-31-21, 10:42 AM	#8
Piwoslaw Super Moderator Join Date: May 2009 Location: Warsaw, Poland Posts: 964 Thanks: 189 Thanked 111 Times in 87 Posts	When I read/hear that "PV is now very cheap", I remember something I read recently, related to the boom on PV in Europe and the rest of the world. It stated that among the reasons for the fall in PV prices are not only large-scale production and new technologies, but also companies riding the wave of popularity by producing poor quality panels. The life expectancy (drop in efficiency) of such panels is half of what the standard was until recently (25-30 years), and this is assuming they survive even moderate hail storms, not to mention short circuits and other failures. Now, some customers are OK with paying less and getting less, but this moves us even more into the direction of short-lived disposables. This means that in 10-15 years we will see more electronic waste, which will have to be replaced, including all of the energy consuming steps of mining, processing, manufacturing, transporting, etc. Yes, due to the cheap price of low quality many people can afford PV, who normally would not be able to invest in it. So they will produce energy, somewhat offsetting today's nuclear and fossil pollution, but actually only moving that burden to the next decade. I dunno, maybe it's still worth it. Or maybe this isn't the right thread. __________________ Ecorenovation - the bottomless piggy bank that tries to tame the energy hog.

03-28-21, 07:34 PM	#3
oil pan 4 Land owner Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: NM Posts: 1,026 Thanks: 12 Thanked 127 Times in 107 Posts	I know this is one old post but it's nice to update old posts, you know so you can see how things played out. This happened after new mexicos out of cycle "blue wave". https://www.heartland.org/news-opini...energy-mandate Now PNM is approved for a 7% rate increase. They wanted 14.4% and they are still going to fight for it. And here it is straight from the horses mouth pnm dot com. https://www.pnm.com/0115-ew-rate-increase-request Yeah so it looks like renewable aren't always cheaper. Yes hydro electric geothermal always wins. It appears the first 15% to 20% of wind power capacity makes your power cheaper especially when you get a large share of your power from coal and natural gas, but anything more than 25% wind power appears to always be a liability. And generally solar is always more expensive, it's only cheaper like wind with in a certain set of parameters. If your load always peaks during the day, all 12 months a year, then yeah solar is the answer, above 10% it's definitely a liability. In a California I believe they call it the "swan curve" phenomenon. Where demand for the day picks up before the sun is up then all the south facing grid tied arrays roar to life as the sun comes up causing generation demand to dive.

04-10-21, 08:10 PM	#6
jeff5may Supreme EcoRenovator Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: elizabethtown, ky, USA Posts: 2,431 Thanks: 431 Thanked 619 Times in 517 Posts	Solar thermal and PV is a good investment for us "small guys": individual and single family home dwellers. Nearly as good for retail store rooftops. Return on investment is usually pretty short (under 5 years) if you don't have a battery bank (or huge thermal store). With the modular and microinverter setups out now, you don't have to go "all in" like systems of the past. A modest system can be expanded upon over time without having to reinvent the wheel every phase.

07-31-21, 09:14 AM	#7
jeff5may Supreme EcoRenovator Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: elizabethtown, ky, USA Posts: 2,431 Thanks: 431 Thanked 619 Times in 517 Posts	Just took another look at this thread, and I'm sort of surprised there aren't more responses. The thing that most sours my outlook on wind and solar sources is the natural gas backup that comes with them. Over the last decade or so, lots of countries around the world have been trying to transition away from nuclear power generation and towards wind and PV power. The operating data coming from the shift of source points to the idea that natural gas emissions are a lot cleaner than coal emissions, but the whole"carbon footprint" hasn't changed much.

08-09-21, 04:26 PM	#9
oil pan 4 Land owner Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: NM Posts: 1,026 Thanks: 12 Thanked 127 Times in 107 Posts	Oh now the coop is trying to up charge me $80 a month just because I have solar. Yeah green energy is pretty much a scam.

08-09-21, 11:49 PM	#10
ME_Andy Helper EcoRenovator Join Date: Dec 2015 Location: New Mexico/Texas Posts: 66 Thanks: 22 Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts	I think the way this is going to play out in the long term is vehicle-to-grid becomes a common, reliable way to back up renewables. We're already starting to see that with the new F150 providing v2g.