Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertSmalls
I'm not impressed with the Hirsch report. Their model uses a triangular curve of oil production suddenly peaking and rapidly declining. Hubbard used a bell-shaped curve, which is the correct shape if the price of oil is constant. In Hubbard's scenario, supply shortfalls would serve as a wake-up call before production can level off, peak, and begin its decline.
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The triangles were just a simplifying assumption, they have no bearing on the real point of the report. The real point is that energy infrastructure takes a very long time to bring on-line, and that time is measured not in years, but in decades. And it follows that if we want to avoid catastrophic dislocations, we need to start working early and in earnest to build out the new infrastructures.
We have already wasted so much time that the dislocations are going to be unavoidable.
Yes, the market is good at responding to shortages, but it is not capable of responding to shortages twenty years in advance. This is what we needed, a twenty year head start (minimum).
However RobertSmalls, the real reason I did the last post is to shine some light on the fact that our political leaders know what is about to happen, and they are not telling us about it, nor are they taking the action that is needed.
Hirsch was a genuine insider, he was hired by the Bush administration and in the Le Monde interviews, he very clearly states that he was told to shut up.
This is something you don't come across very often.
So, are you preparing your infrastructure?
Regards,
-AC_Hacker