If you insulate the unconditioned room to the levels you posted, the room will hold heat very well. As long as it is not open to the outside, it will in fact float to an average charted temperature like your graph. How much variance from average will depend more on the thermal mass in the room and how heat is supplied to the space. Unless there is lots of solar gain from skylights or windows, outdoor temperature will play a much smaller role in changing the temps from your average.
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