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Old 01-19-16, 06:36 AM   #111
stevehull
Steve Hull
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: hilly, tree covered Arcadia, OK USA
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Junkhound.

Your financial analysis of 2016 is spot on with regard to your situation. Mine too.

I have a 2012 Honda Civic with a lifetime gas mileage of 38+ mpg. We own it and the driving costs per mile are low. My wife drives back and forth to work and also has weekend/night call obligations so we put about 20-25 k miles on it every year.

I have watched the prices of gas go up and down over the years. Right now, I can get gasahol at $1.35 /gallon here (Oklahoma). This is LOWER, when adjusted for inflation, than any gas price/gallon ecver (going back 100 years). Yes, lower than the 25 cents/gallon we think of back in the mid 60's.

It will not stay this low for long. With every dip in oil prices, and the media claiming it will stay this low forever - it won't. I expect $150-200 per barrel oil within a few years and gasoline in the $5-7 /gallon range.

And I am planning for that. I have already seen $4.50/gallon (a few summers ago).

In anticipation, I am studying EV plug in cars and what to buy when. This thread has been invaluable The old farmhouse teardown and renovation will include at least 10 kW of rooftop PV. The "return" on investment (internal rate of return) for me when I do self installed PV is in the low 20% range. Yowyza!

I still need internal combustion stuff (tractors, farm trucks etc) so I need diesel. And the cost of fertilizer is directly tied to the cost of petrochemical stocks. Right now, ammonium nitrate is less than $500 per ton - incredibly cheap. So I am not gleefully predicting high petrochemical, oil and natural gas costs.

You do have a point on finances. People that financially "invested" in 1950's bomb shelters, lost a lot of money. You do have to examine the likelihood of events. And being too financially conservative is just as dangerous as being too extravagant.

For now, you are spot on. But I am betting that current teenagers will fondly recall (in many decades) when they bought $1.30/gallon gas. Many will wonder what gasoline per gallon is as they will be thinking of electrical units . . . .

For me, I am betting on large scale adoption of EV. A real inflection point of miles/kWh has just been realized. It is realistic to see 4+ miles/kWh in the next year. Crossing the 4 level is a game changer.

The other game changer is the cost of home grid tied PV power. Right now, all roof top materials (panels, inverters, racking and wiring) can be had for less than $1.25 a watt retail and will likely drop to $1.00/watt this summer. Then add about 2-3 hours of time per kW of panels for installation. That PV price/kW is also an inflection point.

The combination of the two (miles/kWh and prices of PV) makes solar PV and home charging of an EV not only realistic, but actually a saver when I look at my 40 mpg Honda.

Sadly, I am some 15-20 miles out of town and have the bad habit of not being as organized as I should. Therefore, I make stupid trips when I could consolidate them. A PV powered plug in EV (or hybrid) can accommodate my poor planning and make it less bad.

I too have some envy for those adopters that comment here. Kids in college makes choices tough, but they are graduating and getting JOBS - yippee!

Thanks to all of you that have posted on your PV solar and EV experiences good and bad. I read with envy and anticipation.


Steve

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Last edited by stevehull; 01-19-16 at 08:02 AM..
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