I should clarify something. I'm not talking about a manual J load calculation. I'm talking about the load calculation based on furnace runtime when we had multiple instances of -10 to -20f temperatures outside and then calculated to a 'per degree' value. These are actual load values. This is why I'm so confident that a 40k condensing furnace could do the job in my 2100 sq ft house because the 75k 76% furnace(57k output) doesn't even run half the time when it is at design temp.
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