As your using baseboard heat right now your best bang for buck is to install a cold weather ASHP with your house winter heating in mind.
My guesstimate is your winter heating bill will be around 50% or more lower then the current bill with the two tier pricing.
Divide your yearly heating bill in half to get a sense of pay back time vs a heat pump installation costs. If your bill heating bill is high ASHP's pay back time is relatively quick especially when compared to the ducted GSHP's.
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