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Old 04-16-16, 10:48 AM   #14
Xzeption
Lurking Renovator
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Actually, I found using heating/cooling degree days PLUS utility data was very accurate for determining my house's loads. For a one month example,

123 therms = 12,300,000 btus at 882 degree days is about 14,000 btu per degree day or 581 btu per degree hour. My design day outdoor temp here in North Carolina is 20*F. So 70*F - 20*F is 50*F delta. Then 50*F * 581 btu / (degree hour) = 29,000 btu/hr at design temps.

Of course it is not exact as it does not include internal heat gain or the fact that those therms also heat water. But I refined the numbers by running a simple linear regression of two years data. The results matched what I expected from using a stopwatch to time how long the system runs on extreme days. The Manual J (with all assumptions made to overstate the load) came back 50% higher at 42,000 btu/hr. At the time, the system output could not go higher than 32,000 btu, and it heated our house without any trouble on an actual design day.

If I had time I would make a simple webpage that could run these calculations for different areas. But I have some toddlers to run after now. Cheers!
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I wish my country would switch to the metric system. My apologies to international readers who see me jump between metric and imperial units.
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