I think PVWatts is close enough for what it does. I am performing a little better than the estimate 105% for the lifetime of the system.
That is close enough for me in looking at what you want to install. But others want in to be more accurate. Year to year it is different so you are looking for a great guess based over many years of data.
Here is actual posted data for my system
Flynns Arcade 12.560kW
This data gets posted directly from Enphase.
I find this graph interesting.