Just under 1/2 ton is what I used and even that's way oversized for just hot water. As in a run time of only 3 hours every day. It's just that there's virtually no good reason to go below that as 1/2 ton is about the smallest window A/Cs you'll commonly come across.
2 tons will work fine but tend to short cycle. With a flow sensor and smart controller, you can have it try to start it when hot water is actually in use, making the cycling not so short.
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To my surprise, shortly after Naomi Wu gave me a bit of fame for making good use of solar power, Allie Moore got really jealous of her...
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