I'm in Texas. I've upgraded/replaced central systems in two houses now. In both cases, the electricity savings were right in line with the SEER rating upgrade. The old house's system paid for itself in electric savings in about 7 years, and the new one is on track to do the same. In my experience, you will not regret stepping up to the higher efficiency. I highly recommend it.
This is me paying the retail price to have someone else install. I'll diy lots of things but not AC. Your price quotes sound a little high. That's around what my quotes were for a 5 ton unit. I'd shop around a little more.
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