The EV explosion
 

Have you guys noticed what's going on in EV's? The Tesla Model 3 already has over 375k $1k deposits and the Bolt with over 200 miles per charge is due out in October with VW saying it is going to go EV's big time after their inspection fiasco.

Should be interesting and of course the Koch brothers are funding "Fueling US Forward" and crying about EV incentives while the Petroleum Institute lobbies Washington for fossil fuel incentives.
The good thing is that the giants are fighting it out. Tesla, Chevy and EV's around the world with the technology will win in the end and the fossil fuel industry will continue to lose ground especially now that Climate Change is getting to the point that it no longer can be ignored.

Personally I'm waiting for the Bolt. I test drove a Prius just to get an idea of different cars but feel that Toyota has fallen behind. The Prius Prime 2017 runs about $32k and goes 22 miles on electric. The 2017 Volt, which I'm going to test drive this month, looks like a much better deal. The Bolt is on schedule for October and I can't wait.

Rob

Can't wait. I'll be at the door waiting to test drive a Bolt.

I would really like something that doesn't look like a car tho. I don't need the back seat. My truck has proved that. I need someplace to put stuff. Maybe haul a small trailer. So a two seater with some zip.

I like the trike designs. Lighter vehicle. Longer range.

Creeky,
Me too! That's why I'm holding off but I'm getting excited now that my local dealer finally has some Volts to test drive.

Cardinal rule - never fall in love with a car until you own it.

That has saved me more than once!

Rob

It is great to see more options. I still think a small EV truck would sell very well.
We now have 66,256 EV miles on our volt. Powering our car with the sun is amazing.

“Cardinal rule - never fall in love with a car until you own it.”
This is very true.

Some of the used Volt prices are very appealing. Those good used prices did not exist when I bought mine.

The petroleum market isn't going away any time soon. Alternative energy infrastructure creation is completely dependent on fossil fuels currently.
I think around half of all oil is used for on road fuel. So the petroleum industry will gripe and moan when there revenue and profits decline.
The smartest thing the oil companies can do is change with the times since they have a huge revenue base and massive capital to work with. Not changing with the times and dieing off would just be a waste.

I for one am looking forward to climate change. On account of it " making snowy winters a thing of the past". To me that sounds like the solution to a problem, not a problem in and of its self.

Here is a 2013 Volt 47,788 miles for $9,995.
There was no deals like this one when I was shopping for my car.
It is a lot quicker to cover the cars cost with solar savings with prices like this.
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used...ting=159602352

Someone else must have thought it was a good deal it is sold.

So I jump into my old ford f150. 15mpg down. 45mpg back. Hmmm. My payback is going to be pretty quick.

Ev explosion
 

Tony Seba does a talk were he has a photo of a New York street April 1900 full of horse drawn carriages and one car. Then the follow up photo April 1913 same street not one horse in the photo all cars. That's only 13 years for total adoption.

The same complete adoptions and disruptions of recent years go to the cell phone and digital camera. Who remembers Kodak ??? You ask why, The tech is just better in many ways.

Here at the eco-renovators everyone is aware of the multi faceted ways the electric car out perform the internal combustion machines. Just better tech all-round.

Here at home we have already embraced the EV. I used to be a bit of a petrol head. Still have my Corvette, what a dinosaur. The little EV truck can take it. The acceleration smoothness no jerky gear changes no drone from the exhaust pipe, believe me that is annoying after the 1st half hour down the highway. But the best thing with the EV, I will be fueling up on sunshine.

The EV is just better tech.

I agree with Oilpan there will be gasoline around for a while, but I would find it hard to believe that the oil companies would not be feeling so confident in their future now.

With GM finally off sitting on their hands and producing a fully battery electric vehicle and the Leaf, E golf, BMW i3 starting to move. Its going to get quite interesting.

I would have to think when Tesla starts delivering the long awaited Model 3 later this year in mass quantities the total switch to electric drive will be inevitable and quickly progressing.

I think its a little disconcerting that the huge investment is underway for oil pipe-lines of which a lot of our tax dollars are fronting. When the big switch is made to electric drive those idled pipelines are going to be a big sore spot. Who's going to remove those unused pipelines. Those huge dollars could have went to incentives for EV's and charging infrastructure. Why should those funds solely benefit the oil business??

Wouldn't EV charge areas along travelled routes with kiosks powered with a solar awnings in which overproduction be sent back the grid be a better investment.?? I know, Tesla is already doing that with a lot of their Supercharge stations.

I think its very short sited that a standard for rapid charging hasn't been decided. The 30 amp J1772 isn't going to cut it (public charge stations). That's about 25 miles range per hour, "already obsolete". Tesla, Elon Musk said he would welcome other auto-makers to adopt their rapid charge system if they in-turn would help fund the infrastructure. No takers yet.

When you do buy your 230 mile range Chevy Bolt EV how are you going to make a trip with it.? There are only very few of the Chademo quick chargers. Come on GM!!

Tesla's got that one!! The GPS directs you to a Supercharger. You get out plug-in get a coffee (15min) un-plug and drive for another 4 hrs. Have a look at the Tesla Supercharge Network its already massive and it going to double as the Model 3 rolls out.

The futures FINALLY looking very bright for EVs

Randen

Since I belive only half to 1/3 of oil is turned into gasoline so even if everyone switched to electric vehicles that doesn't make the pipe line obsolete. The oil companies should be worried, gasoline production is a huge source of revenue.
That gasoline and gas oil will have to be hydroformed into heavier products. So there is no chance they will be stuck with tons of gasoline no one is buying.
Still have to make jet fuel for air craft, diesel for heavy movers to include farm implements and ocean going vessels, petrol chemicals for pretty much everything, lube oil for anything with moving parts, asphalt for roads and roofing.
You do realize the pipe line creates less job opportunities internal combustion engines since they were moving the oil by rail. No pipe line doesn't keep the oil in the ground. Due to a lack of generating capacity.
No pipe line just means the oil gets moved by less safe less efficient means through populated areas.

The 30 amp plugs are perfect for home charging stations.
You could wire a home for a super charger, but it might just be easier to run a second service drop for it and that if it doesn't over load the neighborhood overhead lines and transformers.
The only place that might not be able handle the large influx of vehicle charging is California since some summers they can't seem to keep the power on because of all the air conditioning going on.

If Tesla can make a profit on the Model 3, the other carmakers will be Screwed with a capital S. Chevy is reportedly losing about $9k on every Bolt (without considering government EV credits). Meanwhile, Tesla expects 22% margins, IIRC.

EV explosion
 

Oilpan you are correct about 30% of crude is refined into gasoline and about another 20% is diesel and smaller fraction go towards kerosene/jet fuel.

If you look at the situation the low hanging fruit or largest single component gasoline, that is used by personal transportation can be reduced. Just like reducing your cumbersome debt. "pay your highest interest debts first" The replacement of the family car with an awesome EV will take a huge portion out of crude refinement.

Don't forget there is also a lot of petroleum burnt getting the gasoline to the pumps. The amount of energy spent getting fuel "from the well to the tank" is staggering.

There is a ban for operation of diesel vehicles for 4 major cities Athens,Mexico city,Paris and Madrid by 2025.

WAIT A MINUTE.....Ok now I'm just being an idiot !!! The real reason for an electric car!!! ITs JUST BETTER. Drive one, you'll understand.

Randen

But I drive electric powered vehicles all the time.
The only problem I see with the vehicles them self is price. Everything else is people. People are usually unwilling to change and the lack of charging stations for people who do not own their own home.

I too am seriously looking at the Chevy Bolt. But when to buy?

As I understand it, the large rebate is effective only for the first number (200,000?) of Bolts sold.

It would be a shame to miss out on a $7500 federal tax rebate. Sales of the Bolt are surprisingly strong, so what is the consensus on time to buy?

Early on prices are high due to it is a new model, then prices drop later - but if you miss the rebate, then you loose a LOT!!


Steve

You have a little while before you have to worry about tax credit expiring.
When do electric-car tax credits expire? (further update)

Tesla could hit it if the get the model 3 released.

It expires IRS quote “The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying”

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-...30-and-irc-30d

Chevy Volt Crosses 100,000 US Sales Milestone
http://www.hybridcars.com/top-sellin...les-milestone/

The time is now.

Don't forget. You may pay a price as an early adopter, but you start saving money on gas immediately too. So what is your ongoing gas cost.

Plus. Come on. The envy factor. Smile. I'll be drooling for sure.

Creeky

I couldn't agree more that the time is here. I'm thinking of making a deposit for the Mrs. for her Tesla Model 3. She's piloting a Prius back and forth to her employment. The cost per km. the Prius is equal to the Tesla burning electrons vs gasoline at this point in time. Unless gasoline makes a huge increase monetarily the Tesla doesn't have a ROI. However it is a much better car and larger.

That said as our solar PV comes on line that ROI may change as you cannot make your own gasoline but we know how to collect electrons.

Randen

A Tesla is not a Toyota. I really hope Elon doesn't sell too many of the new models before he builds a support network for them. He owns all of the dealership fronts, so he has no one else to blame as it sits now. Existing owners are furious about the time it takes for factory service already.

Add that to the fact that most people ponying up a preorder deposit own Toyota or Honda vehicles already. Besides heavenly reliability, these OEM's have service centers everywhere. If something does go wrong, these owners expect prompt and accurate service. Most are not mechanically inclined and don't plan on being that way. Waiting months for a service appointment would not be tolerated, much less waiting weeks for their vehicles back from the shop.

I am eager to see how this model launch plays out for Tesla. The prototypes look awesome and so are performance and range claims. Either way, the company has hit critical mass, and won't be the same after the launch.

Jeff bring up an important concern - service.

With a Chevy Bolt, Volt or Nissan Leaf, there are dealers everywhere.

I am in central Oklahoma, close by to Oklahoma City with a metropolitan area population of 1.5 million or more one of the top 25 most populated USA cities.

But no Tesla dealer anywhere in Oklahoma . . . . . .

I really like the Tesla Model 3, but am strongly leaning towards the Chevy Bolt. The Bolt has not nearly the interior "fit and finish" as the Tesla product - but I can get service.

And, interestingly, our other cars are Hondas (Civic and Element) with the reliability that Jeff mentions.

I suspect many, outside of California, are thinking much the same as service on a new roll out company is an important issue.

Thanks Jeff for mentioning this.

Steve

I have been driving my Nissan Leaf now for 2 years. I have done 40,000 miles in that time, and mostly charged from my solar panels on the house. Total running costs for the 40,000 miles are just £500 (on overnight cheap rate electric).
The same distance in my Nissan 3/4 ton pickup would have been £14,000.
I am one of those 400,000 Tesla Model 3 pre-orders, and TBH, I can't wait.
Whilst the Leaf has served my well, and cost such an insignificant amount, the 80 mile true range can be a pain, especially when I am working on a contract with a 130 mile round trip. The rapid charger that I use to get home takes 30 minutes to put in about 60 miles of charge, but it is FREE!! :)
The Tesla won't need a rapid charge, as the range is a proper 200+ miles, which is about 70 miles more than I need in a day.
I think realistically that the whole "EVolution" process will only take a few years, as the UK government called a meeting of dangerously high emissions from diesel engines on Friday, as we used the whole years pollution allowance in just 5 days.
I was going to strip the Leaf for parts and add it to my home built "powerwall" (as it would give 4 days power with no solar input), but my used car will be worth more than I thought with the ban on anything but zero emission going into the city, so I will be selling that when the Model 3 arrives about Christmas 2018.
Added to this, the bonus of safer, self-driving vehicles, I know I will quite enjoy being chauffeured to work, and not having to concentrate on getting there.

@nexsuperne
How much solar power do you have installed?
I would love to see more info on your home made power wall.

At the moment, I only have 3KW of solar PV, 4KW of solar thermal and an 8KW wood burner that does space and water heating.
The solar PV is connected to a wall of 896 18650 cells (Samsung 26F - 2600mAH giving 10KWH connected as 14Series64Parallel, split across 4 boards). At the moment, the wall is charged within 4 hours of sunrise, and goes back on to grid power at midnight, when cheap rate electric starts. This charges the wall back up to 100%
It runs nearly everything in the house, apart from the range cooker (9KW electric) and a tumble dryer.
The lights, heating pumps, washing machine, CCTV, Telecoms, TV, Fridge/Freezer and car charger are all on the wall. Adding the Leaf would have got it up to 30+KWH, or enough for 4 days straight without any solar PV.
I can add the Leaf traction battery in using the on board 360V to 12V DC-DC converter, which charges the cars 12V battery and then run that through another external DC-DC 12V to 48V buck boost converter as a temporary measure.

Chevy Bolt
 

I almost didn't want to like it and we expected it to be a 238 mile range Leaf but found the Bolt to be a really fun car to drive with lots of pep and good handling in a very well thought out car.
After watching tons of YT's on the Bolt, both pro and con, and browsing the Bolt forum we expected the seats to be to narrow and the interior to be chintzy but they were fine. Sure the interior wasn't as nice as the Subaru I traded in but the Subaru killed us over the years with one problem after another and we were glad to get rid of it.

Bottom line, we leased it for three years. I'm watching gas prices rise again, the higher they go the better our choice was. Funny, I never saw it that way before getting the EV.

We're going more and more full electric now. Electric riding mower, tiller and string trimmers for the yard and now I see Mitsubishi is selling mini-splits that have high efficiency even at low temps like we get here.

I'm still way ahead on my electric bill so the thought of driving with no cost per mile, oil changes, antifreeze, transmissions, timing belts, mufflers, spark plugs, etc. is very appealing.

We'll see how the Bolt holds up and what will be available in three years. I'm wondering what the roll back on fuel standards will create. Will people go back to gas guzzlers? That's a scary but possible thought, after all car companies make a good buck on them and with less restrictions and no compliance car requirements the picture for EV's isn't as bright as it was before last November.

Your thoughts are always appreciated.
Rob

CONGRATS! On the new ride.
I have never leased a car but I I was in your situation I would lease the bolt also.
Post some pictures. Did you get heated seats and steering wheel? I look forward to hearing how it performs.
Driving on extra solar is hard to beat we love it.

Thanks PB!

Yes 'the little women' sort of demanded it but I think she's right. You use less energy in the long run and I heard the heated wheel was more than just bragging rights.

It took some time but finally I have a full battery riding mower, cordless string trimmers and a cordless tiller and of course now the Bolt.
I went back and forth with the Volt, another good choice, but felt the Bolt was ideal for the range of driving we do. This is our only car by the way although we do have an old F150 beater that gets used occasionally short range for transporting compost, etc.
Pics to follow of the Bolt and other 'appliances'.

Hopefully wind goes in this summer.
Rob

You will be so glad she demanded heated seats/steering Wheel. It really helps save range in the winter and so worth it. The Bolt is not in my area yet.

Damn, the Bolt is in California, the pacific NW and New York. Not in my area either - yet.

This is going to be a very interesting choice for me this fall. Bolt vs the new Leaf. Both will have similar ranges, the Bolt will have more production miles on it as the Leaf will come out this fall. But the Leaf will have some autonomous driving capability . . .

Then who offers the best lease . . . .

Lots of questions, but it is an exciting time indeed.

Roboroni, Look forward to your owner appraisal of features and your hard nosed perspective. I didn't know your area of NY had much wind potential. Here we have a lot of wind, but putting up a 10 kW wind generator is a BIG deal as it is a hefty tower and my tower climbing days are over. The other issue is cost. A wind turbine, watt for watt, is 4-5 times that of a self installed PV system which is mostly nuts and bolts on a rooftop.

On the other hand, wind are solar are very complimentary; solar is best in day,whereas wind peaks generally at night.

What type of wind turbine are you thinking of?

Steve

@Robaroni
It is killing me I want to hear you thought on the BOLT after driving it around a while.
How many miles are on it so far? What are you and your wife’s thoughts about it?

I'm going electric car and not looking back
 

Way too late not to fall in love with Tesla vehicles in my case, even though I've never even driven in one. I just installed solar and I'm going to get a used Nissan LEAF so I'll be driving for nearly free. Solar and electric cars is an awesome matchup! I'm of course saving up for a Tesla Model 3 and will get one as soon as I can afford it, most likely used. Such an amazing car!

I use geothermal heat pumps, which provide a cooling SEER of 35+ and a heating COP of 4+. And get free hot water all summer and about 1/2 of my hot water needs in the winter from the GT heat pumps. My 12 kW array and heat pumps is a great match for this. But I am REALLY looking at adding an EV and another 4 kW to the solar array.

For me it comes down to the 2018 LEAF and Chevy Bolt. The 2018 Leaf should be released soon.

Indeed, an exciting time!

Steve