Global warming effects on heating cost
 

Heating cost in the NE has been pretty low this winter.
And burning less oil, means a smaller carbon footprint!!

Anyways, if the winters in NE get milder and stay milder in the coming years,
it seems like this whole densely populated area might become
much more suitable for using ASHP heating during the winter.. (Mini-splits).

Could GW allow us to discontinue using home heating oil completely..?.

As more ice melts and the range of the great ocean conveyor decreases winters in the US will probably become warmer. The flip side is much colder winters in higher latitudes, so even if your Carbon footprint comes down someone else's will probably go up.

The biggest potential problem is drought, especially in terms of wildfire exposure. Not an issue in the north, but in the south/midwest they could loose a lot of money in terms of fire control and crop yields.

Droughts Getting Worse in Southern U.S. and Somalia - TIME

Food insecurity from drought is a big reason why the Pentagon considers climate change to be one of it's toughest strategic challenges in the coming decades.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/sc...pagewanted=all

Here in Wisconsin we used half as much fuel as last year heating the shop at work and heating my own house, the shop at work is heated with a coal burning stove and we normally use two pallets per year, this year our first pallet still has a few bags on it.
It's also looking like we're going to have our 2nd dry, hot summer and if it does cool down and freeze again, it's going to ruin a lot of fruit crops.

The buds are coming out on the trees here already.. And, the forecast
Woburn March Weather 2012 - AccuWeather Forecast for MA 01801
shows it's going to be freezing again in about a week.. :(

It rarely gets really hot around here (being near the coast), but it would
cause a lot of problems if it did. (Texas type heat spells).

We had to go bike riding today!
http://pauland.net/tempdaycomp.png
It's the perfect Spring day.. 75F, when the historical average high is 47F..

You're right about being colder up north..
Anchorage March Weather 2012 - AccuWeather Forecast for AK 99501
A bit below normal for this time of the year..

Lots of talk about Winnipeg up here today. Today's normal temperature is a high of -3C. the record is +19C today is expected to hit +27C. Same with tomorrow. Yes you save on heating but if it's closing in on 30C already you have to expect the AC bill's are going to be brutal this summer.

Around here, from May 1, to August 31, it averages about 65-67F (19C).
Once in a while we see a peak (May 1, 2010 - August 31, 2010 68.8 °F) but mostly, it stays pretty mild.

However, if we do get extremely hot weather this summer,
it's going to be hard not to link it back to the mild winter,
and start thinking we might be looking at a trend. (At least in this area).

I was watching how the polar jet stream would occasionally dip into this area
last winter and give us a good blast of cold. But mostly, it stay up north.
I guess that isolation makes for colder weather and more snow north of the border.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc200...-the-plane.jpg

If it keeps holding the cold air masses in place up north during the winter
of 2012-2013, we could be looking at a big savings in heating cost in the NE.
Hopeful, the cost for cooling in the summer won't negate our gains.
Hot summers are hard on people around here. They aren't used to them.

I'm not just right about that. And it's not just me. The United States Department of Defense is also rightfully concerned. We're also seeing record drought conditions.

My family lives in Texas (and some in Anchorage AK). And they have told me that
this drought is getting worse, than the 10 year drought we had back in the 50s.
One reason is the large increase Texas has seen in population since then.

There's been a strong La Nina in effect last year and this winter. Hopefully it'll ease and bring us more rain. This "winter" has been normal for rainfall. We're not quite moving forward but at least the drought isn't getting worse.

My heating bill was half of normal this winter. Part of that is the new heating system but the warmer weather played a big part as well.

Yeah Strider, we're seeing some crazy heat here in Winnipeg this March. I don't think it reached 27, and there was a cool wind and clouds that didn't make it feel like 27 but I think it hit around 25C or something. It's suppose to hit 25C again today and be in the teens almost all week. It's nice to have, but in the back of my mind it's like...this is freaky man. Haven't turned on the AC yet though. I just open the windows and let the air blow through.

I think our average temperatures for this winter are going to be between 5 and 7 deg F above the normal average.
We did see some nice savings on heat, but it's nowhere near 50%..

This is our first year running dual Sanyos and heating the whole house (to 21C).
If next winter turns out to be a lot different (colder or warmer), I'll have something to compare to.

It was nice to get a break from the snow this winter, after the beating we took in 2010/2011.
Roofs caving in etc.. :eek:

I heard on the radio (I was at work again) that we broke another record today.

You mean water reserves right? Drought (ie rain/snowfall is independent of population, water levels aren't) is independent of population and probably part of GCC. Any water reserves otoh (aquifers, lakes, and so on), are going to be drawn down faster during a drought if there are more people, but that's a separate issue and wouldn't be one if not for record setting drought.

Fracking uses lots of water, too.

San Felipe Springs
 

No, I mean that relatives in Texas have been telling me it's getting bad.
In central & south Texas, it's drier these past few years than it's been for decades.
No one said anything about reserves.

In 1950, there were about 8 million people in Texas. Many of them weren't
effected by the lack of rain. But today, there are about 26 million Texans.
So, all those folks must be putting a strain on the water supplies.

I lived in Del Rio during the 1950s drought, which wasn't affected at all..
San Felipe Springs
When it got too hot, we went swimming in ice cold spring water.. :)
http://www.edwardsaquifer.net/images/2-014.jpg

Our burst of Global Warming disappeared after the tree blossoms bloomed.
We had a hard freeze (3-27-12) and those trees look like they are dying..

We have friends who are paying around $4 a gallon for home heating oil.
Their typical fill-up is costing them $400 to $600 bucks.

Depending on how the elections go, they might be paying over $1,000 a fill-up this coming winter..

I don't think the elections are going to make any difference on that aspect. Really high oil prices are pretty much inevitable at this point.

Ditto. All they can do is use tax money so that everyone is paying for everyone else's heat which I really don't like the idea of. Then, once again, the people with foresight get penalized because the normal Joe just lives his "normal" life of over consumption.

I'm not so sure. If we are lucky, we might get a helpful government.
If all we get is the demonizing of 'big oil' etc etc for another 4 years, things could get really dire.

If we had a strong economic recovery, we might be able to negate some
of the effects of bad government.

A demonizing-only policy isn't going encourage economic recovery.
It will only keep stall any recovery for another 4 years.

Today, I'm hearing that our president wants to increase taxes on oil companies.
Like that's going to lower fuel cost.?.
I'm pretty sure they are just going to pass their 'punishment tax' cost, on to us, at the pump.

Of course, increasing fuel cost is going to increase everything else.
Which means we might have to cut back on things like milk and bread.. :(

The oil companies are making record profits. And yet we give them $4 Billion in subsidies.

Is it the amount of money that companies earn is, makes them evil?
Is that how we should pick out those companies, that need to be punished?

I'm not against getting rid of those tax breaks. We should be able to run
the government an extra two or three hours a month, with that extra Oil tax revenue.

Yeah, they get tax breaks. I've also heard that many other big companies, also get tax breaks.


Are we going to make it a 'level playing field' and take away all tax breaks to American industry?



I'm almost sure that Apple Computer isn't going to go out of business without their tax breaks.. Just mark up the IPad by $50..
(Like the price at the pump would be marked up).

What makes them evil is that they are able to get away with chemically altering the atmosphere -- which is shifting a HUGE cost onto all the rest of us. The fact that they are now earning the largest profits *ever* and we are also *giving* them money is just crazy. They do not need $4 Billion dollars.

They need to account for *all* the real costs of burning oil.

their profits are so massive simply due to the size of their operations. On a pure margin basis oil companies aren't that spectacular. Also most of their tax breaks are identical to the ones offered to every other company in the US. They happen to get such large breaks once again due to their size.

IF they were spending a trillion dollars a year and only making 4 billion in profit they'd be considered economic failures. If the made 4 billion off of spending 1 billion they be the most popular investments out there. They're somewhere in between. Really apple makes far more profit based on it's expenses but people seem to love them for it.

I don't see them as needing to account for the atmospheric damage done by oil. The person burning that oil should pay for it. Passing the blame instead of taking personal responsibility is unfortunately the way things are done these days.

The climate change caused by burning fossil fuels is having an enormous effect on the entire planet. The real costs of burning fossil fuels needs to be born by the people who are profiting from it -- this is how "true markets" have to work. And that will be reflected in the money price we all pay, but it must be proportional to the incentive to pull the oil and coal out of the ground.

By the way, have you heard about the offshore gas drilling rig that has had a blowout and had to be abandoned?

Offshore Natural Gas Leak in Scotland -- Total Trying to Contain It

We aren't giving them any money.. But, they (like Apple, IBM, Ford, GE, GM Etc)
Manufacture products! So, they get to keep some of the money they earn..
They get a tax break..
(Did I hear that GE paid Zero taxes last year)??

Some breaks are better than others. Apple gets a much bigger break than the oil companies..

How about we attack the top 40 on this list?? Tax the heck out of them!
Fortune 500 2011: Top Performers - Most Profitable Companies: Profits

But, just those that "manufacture" stuff (provide jobs) and leave the big banks & investors alone..?.

Yeah, because the US Gov knows all about business and how they can
make everything fair to those bottom 50% who pay all those taxes.. ;)
(Never mind, they don't pay taxes)..

The president submitted his budget yesterday.
The house wrote it up into a bill and sent it to the senate.
Guess how many Democrats Senators voted for it.?.

Zero, because none of them think it's a good idea to increase cost at the pump...

Some Senator "filibustered" the bill to cut $2B in subsidies to oil companies. And it did not pass.

Why? Because the five big oil companies have bought plenty of politicians, and even though almost everybody says they think we should cut the oil company subsidies ... we still are giving them billions of dollars.

Yeah, caught on tape.. Rep. Mick Mulvaney Offers President Obama's budget (Part 2) - YouTube

What??
 

EDITORIAL: Abrupt climate-change reversal - Washington Times

Is the IPCC really saying this??

"is now concluding that the cause of these damaging storms has nothing to do with human activity."


This is the scary part..

"That damaging squalls are not anthropogenic surely will be unwelcome news to President Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which imposes drastic restrictions on the nation in the hopes of changing the weather. The EPA’s website features an Extreme Events page, which reads: “Human-induced climate change has the potential to alter the prevalence and severity of extremes such as heat waves, cold waves, storms, floods and droughts.”

On the basis of that premise, EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson last week announced plans to place crushing restrictions on the nation’s coal-burning power plants, on which Americans depend to produce 45 percent of the nation’s electricity.
"

We had all better start saving our pennies for PV if Obama stays in office..
Because the price for Kw hours is going to shoot up like gasoline.
(Which is over $4 for regular in my town this Sunday)..

What does an editorial got to do with science?

It's reporting the IPCC is starting to use actual "science"..


"The IPCC’s Special Report on Extremes, released March 28, reads, “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized [property] losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change.” The breathtaking admission is a sign that objective science is reclaiming a leading role in the discussion."


But, it seems that our EPA is choosing to ignore science. And going instead with political ideology.

Come on -- do you really believe that?

Anthropogenic climate science is as certain as any science can be that we humans have caused this incredibly rapid increase in carbon dioxide, and the climate is changing. Add more insulation and the climate warms -- this is just physics.

It's the IPCC
 

What the IPCC has said, seems to indicate they don't believe the extreme weather we've been seeing lately,
can't be shown to be linked to man-caused CO2 levels etc.

Or, maybe I read it wrong..?. I guess what they said is going to be up
for interpretation until a consensuses is reaches and it's all settled.. :p


"
The IPCC’s Special Report on Extremes, released March 28, reads, “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized [property] losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change.”
"

EXTREME weather blown away from unexpected direction ? The Register

InvestigateDaily – Climate change may not be to blame for weather extremes – new IPCC report

IPCC Confirms: We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme

Jesus, can't these bloggers read the report before they post something? The IPCC didn't say that about extreme weather in general, just specific types of extreme weather (page 269 of the SREX report). They stated that there didn't appear to be a link between tropical and extratropical storms and tornadoes based on recent papers, but that there could be a link in terms of precipitation based events based on recent papers. They also stated that increased resilience to disasters could be one of multiple confounding factors masking any impact of climate change on extreme weather events, and also mentioned the limitations of the data sets. It takes a few decades for changes in weather to manifest themselves as changes in climate. I am sick and tired of bashing groups just because they don't agree with their funding source (fossil fuel companies). Saying that the IPCC got this one part right and everything else wrong because it agrees with the view of the group that writes your pay check is complete BS. :rolleyes:

I guess they were Cherry Picking. Taking things out of context.
Luckily, the main stream media never does that! ;)

Don't get me started! :D