I guess I don't understand. You are using the EPA estimate as the prior standard? I would suggest running the unit as is, without the modified thermostat, and NOT using the EPA estimate. Then you have a true baseline allowing an apples to apples comparison.
It could be that the new thermostat is better - but why? The insulation is the same, the compressor is the same - what is different?
Steve
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consulting on geothermal heating/cooling & rational energy use since 1990
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